2022/23 Premier League Season Preview

Grading the transfer window | State of the team | Predicting the starting XI | Narratives across the league | Bonus predictions!

After what feels like hardly any off-season at all, the Premier League is back in action this weekend, including our beloved Tottenham Hotspur.

I picked a few categories to guide me through this season-preview. It's mostly Spurs-centric, but I will touch on the rest of the league a little bit. Without further ado, let's dive into the 2022/23 Premier League season!

Grading the transfer window

Of course there is the caveat that the transfer window will still be open until September 1, so there could be further decisions from sporting director Fabio Paratici and the board to change my score, up or down. For now, I can only consider the business done up until this point.

My score out of 10:  8.5

From my perspective, this has been an overwhelmingly positive transfer window so far. We've plugged some holes in the depth chart, brought in a mix of proven players and promising players, and have done it all for a very reasonable amount of money, all things considered.

My favorite signing of the bunch is Ivan Perišić without a doubt. Not only does he bring his strong technical skills and impressive work rate to the club, he also brings a career's worth of trophy-winning know-how. He's a big game player and I am confident that having a player like him in our squad is what's going to get us over the line in a final this season.

It took me a while to come around on Richarlison, but I have come to appreciate Partici's reasoning for bringing him in. He's a versatile forward who can play any position along the forward line and he's proven himself to be a capable goal-scorer at the Premier League level. It's refreshing that we finally have a player who can sub in for Harry Kane throughout the season—or even start in his place for less crucial matches. Also on the reliable backup front, Fraser Forster could end up being a very shrewd signing by keeping (no pun intended) Hugo Lloris adequately rested across the four-competition season.

Yves Bissouma managed to thrive in a less-than-stellar Brighton squad, so I don't doubt he will be able to contribute a lot at Tottenham.

And then you have two players looking to make a name for themselves in Djed Spence (fresh from the Championship) and Clément Lenglet (looking to move on from a tough spell at Barcelona). Another factor in the plus column for Paratici is that of the six summer signings, only Lenglet is a loan, so we'll get to enjoy watching most of these players for seasons to come (assuming they work out, of course).

The only downside to the window (besides the concerning nature of the Bissouma signing due to his then-uncertain legal status, which I won't retread but it still worth mentioning)? Outgoings have not been as successful yet as incomings.

Harry Winks (bless him), Tanguy Ndombele, and Giovani Lo Celso are all still technically on Tottenham's books. As the European leagues get underway there will surely be more serious offers from teams realizing that these players could serve a function in their squads, but they aren't easy players to move on, by any means. We did say goodbye to a few players who had outstayed their welcome (Cameron Carter-Vickers, Jack Clarke), needed a move for the sake of their own careers (Steven Bergwijn, Joe Rodon on loan), and loaned out a couple of young players who need more development (Troy Parrott and Dane Scarlett). Japhet Tanganga and Sergio Reguilón are also in a tenuous position in Conte's squad, while Bryan Gil and Pape Matar Sarr could both arguably use a loan for more game time.

If we were to make any further moves this transfer window, besides the much-needed outgoings, I would want to see another center-back brought in (since Rodon is going out on loan and Tanganga might be right behind him) or a creative attacking midfielder. We feel pretty well-covered in the wingback and forward positions, mostly thanks to the versatility of a few players who can be effective on either side of the pitch in their position (Perišić, Richarlison) or can play at more than one position (Davies, Perišić again, maybe Kulusevski?)

All in all, it's been an excellent transfer window to set us up for the new season.

State of the team

Beyond and including the new transfers, let's take a look at the rest of the squad.

I'm very happy with the balance of experienced and developing players. We have a strong spine of Hugo Lloris in goal, Eric Dier at central center-back, a midfield pivot of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur, and of course, Harry Kane as striker. The defense is a healthy mix of reliability and bravery—Cristian Romero for that last bit, in case that wasn't obvious. You could make a decent argument for any of the midfield players to earn a place in the starting lineup (fitness permitting, it must be said) and options abound at wingback. And how could you not be excited about a go-to starting forward three of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min, and Dejan Kulusevski?

Another reason for optimism this season is that Antonio Conte got a full pre-season with almost the entire squad, bar the later arrival of Djed Spence. We know how important it is for his teams to be well-drilled and up to his exacting fitness standards, and we can feel confident that everyone is on track after a productive summer of training sessions and friendlies. There's also the addition of set piece manager Gianni Vio to increase the squad's feeling of preparedness.

We already saw strong, immediate chemistry between the established squad and the new January signings—Bentancur and Kulusevski—so I'm sure that our summer signings well have bedded in just as easily, and everyone will be on the same page come opening matchday. Plus, we didn't have any long, drawn-out transfer sagas this summer like we did with Kane last year, so the team is feeling a lot more settled mentally as well. You could say the remaining should-be outgoings could factor into the locker room vibes, but I get the feeling that even if those players don't get their desired moves away from the club, Conte will be keeping them at arm's length from the first team.

Overall, I believe this Spurs squad is in a good position to challenge for—if not win— multiple titles this season, and at the very least finish higher in the PL standings than 2021/22. The future is looking bright again!

Predicting the starting XI

Time for another caveat:  the starting XI is going to be a lot more in flux than it was last season, when Conte had far less depth in the squad to call upon in times of crisis (or just for regular old rotation). I think we will see the most variability within the wingbacks and central midfield, partially due to the wear-and-tear factor and partially due to the wider range of experience within the squad for those roles.

However, I feel comfortable making a prediction about Conte's starting XI for the opening match at home to Southampton. Here's my picks to secure a win and all three points on matchday 1:

I feel extremely confident about nine out of eleven of these players being in the starting lineup—yes, even newcomer Perišić. The ones I am not as sure about are Ben Davies and Matt Doherty. Davies is a question mark simply because of his pre-season injury concern, but I can guarantee that at this early stage of the season, if Davies is fit he is starting. Conte trusts him, and while Lenglet had a good couple of performances in the last two friendlies, I don't think he's done enough yet to usurp Davies in the starting XI. Doherty's inclusion is also up in the air for a similar reason; his injury isn't a recent one, but rather the injury from last season that he's just now coming back from. But again, if he is fit I think he has more to offer than Emerson Royal, especially on the attacking front.

Who would y'all have in your ideal starting XI? Does Southampton being the opponent factor into it much (or at all)? I'm inclined to say no, because I think Conte will want to see his preferred starting XI in action right away, regardless of the strength of our opponent. Plus, he never really altered the formation much to account for differing opposition playing styles, which was my one criticism of him in my end of season recap. Individual performances might be tweaked a bit, but the general foundation of the tactics largely stayed the same. Something to watch this season, for sure.

There will be times in the season when Conte does have to bring some fresh faces into the starting XI for the sake of keeping everyone fit (cup matches, maybe even PL matches against some of the bottom-of-the-table teams), and we will also see the bench players featuring frequently in second halves thanks to the re-introduced five substitutions rule. Romero's one yellow card away from a suspension? Time for Davinson Sánchez. Son or Kulusevksi have run as far as they can possibly run? Bring on Richarlison for some super-sub energy. It's so refreshing to know we will have strong reinforcements waiting on the bench this season, across all positions.

But now, ignore what I just said about Conte's stubbornness and remember the most important thing:  Trust in Conte.

Narratives across the league

To wrap things up, let's take a look at the rest of the teams in the league as I note a few storylines that I'll be keeping an eye on.

Chelsea vulnerable?

Sure, things have calmed down a little bit at Chelsea now that they don't have a sanctioned Russian oligarch as their club owner, but... not by much. The squad is still highly unsettled. Lukaku may have gone out on loan, but the knowledge of his failed return to the club lingers as a cautionary tale against profligate, hasty spending. It remains to be seen if they have actually learned that lesson, since they have once again signed two highly-rated players that could yet prove to be a horrible fit for their system—whatever the Thomas Tuchel system is, exactly. He's starting to gain a reputation for being almost as prone to tinkering as Pep Guardiola. They also lost their two best defenders (Antonio Rüdiger, Andreas Christensen) over the summer, while retaining a couple (César Azpilicueta, Thiago Silva) who are both on the older end of the Premier League player spectrum. Finally, they have a bevy of returning players that seemed to thrive at their loan clubs (Conor Gallagher, Armando Broja, and Michy Batshuayi) but could struggle to re-integrate with this mercurial Chelsea team. I'm just saying, if we don't take some points off of Chelsea this season I am seriously going to assume there's a curse involved.

Aston Villa sleeping giants?

Okay, I will admit I said this last season and was mostly wrong, but I still think that Aston Villa have done some decent transfer business in recent seasons, and coupled with Steven Gerrard starting his first full season in charge, there is definitely some potential there. They've got my second favorite keeper in the league (after Hugo, of course), Emi Martínez. They have Philippe Coutinho who, yes, was the subject of one of the worst transfers in recent memory with Barcelona, but already seems to be performing better since he joined Villa in January. And while I don't necessarily agree with all of Gerrard's tactical ideas, he knows what it takes to find a way to win—the infamous slip aside. With Leicester not making any incoming transfers yet this season and West Ham possibly reaching the end of a cycle of success, Villa could have an outside chance of qualifying for European football by the end of the season.

Nottingham Forest stronger than the average newly promoted team?

This is also a hunch based on transfer business. My Bundesliga bias is going to show here, but I think they've picked up some quality players in Omar Richards (I was sad to see him leave Bayern so soon) and Taiwo Awoniyi. I am frankly shocked that Brice Samba, hero of Forest's promotion playoff semi-final penalty shootout victory, has now left the club, while the hero of the United States' Nations League final victory last summer, Ethan Horvath, has gone on loan to ensure playing time before the World Cup team selection. Forest have made a couple of smart signings to replace them, Dean Henderson on loan from Manchester United and Wayne Hennessey, Wales' first choice keeper. And say what you want about Jesse Lingard, when he's utilized appropriately he is a very capable player. Hilariously, they've also poached a couple of players from Huddersfield, whom they beat out for promotion in the playoff final, but that's not hugely relevant to my point here. My point is that Forest should be underestimated at everyone else in the league's peril. I don't think they will be anywhere close to the relegation battle at the end of the season.

Crystal Palace are fun???

It brings me great displeasure to even suggest this, but I'm afraid it's true. Patrick Vieira has properly turned them around from the days of Roy Hodgson's benign neglect (thank god Watford found a replacement for Roy this summer so the man can finally retire in peace). They are genuinely an enjoyable team to watch. When I started watching the Premier League regularly again several years ago, I quickly came to hate Crystal Palace for reasons that are purely vibes-based, but now I find myself unable to hate them. It does help that they beat Arsenal in spectacular fashion last season when we really needed them to. They might struggle to fill the midfield hole left by expired loanee Conor Gallagher—he was truly transformative for them—but otherwise they haven't had too much squad turnover and brought in a great defender, American player Chris Richards (another Richards leaving Bayern, as it happens). Richards spent some time on loan at Hoffenheim previously and really impressed, so I'm rooting for him to do well at Palace, too (but not so well when they play Spurs, obviously). Plus, Rebecca Lowe supports Crystal Palace, so how bad could they really be? I must begrudgingly take them off my PL enemies list. (Still there:  Brighton, Newcastle, and—it goes without saying—Arsenal)

All right, I'm going to cut myself off there because I really could go on forever talking about who had a good transfer window and who didn't. (When did I become a transfer window junkie?! Good grief.) I also didn't even touch on the most exciting addition to the league, Erling Braut Haaland, terrifying destroyer of defensive lines. While I'm sad that he has left the Bundesliga, at least he moved to the only other European league I watch consistently. And boy is he a joy to watch, rooting interests aside.

Suffice it to say, I am incredibly excited for this new Premier League season to get started. It helps that I have such a good feeling about Tottenham, but I'm also looking forward to seeing how it pans out for everyone else. And I always watch the player leaderboards with keen interest to see who's contending for Golden Boot, Playmaker, and Golden Glove.

On that note, I will end this season preview with my one bold, spicy hot take for the 2022/23 season:  Dejan Kulusevski is winning the Playmaker award. Calling it now.

I will also share my predictions from the Football Ramble template, so that at the end of the season y'all can hold me accountable for being an incorrigible optimist (and noted Brighton hater).

COYS

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